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While Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 21% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. We think most investors would be happy with the 104% return, over that period. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 31% decline over the last twelve months.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for Regal Rexnord
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the five years of share price growth, Regal Rexnord moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Regal Rexnord has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Regal Rexnord will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Regal Rexnord the TSR over the last 5 years was 125%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Regal Rexnord had a tough year, with a total loss of 30% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 9.8%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 18% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Regal Rexnord better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Regal Rexnord is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...