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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 29%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 18%. On the bright side, the stock is actually up 20% in the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 11% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$21b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the one-year loss for shareholders.
See our latest analysis for Merck
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last year Merck saw its earnings per share increase strongly. While the business is unlikely to sustain such a high growth rate for long, it's great to see. So we are surprised the share price is down. So it's worth taking a look at some other metrics.
Merck managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Merck stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
Merck shareholders are down 27% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Merck better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Merck has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.