Delta variant will 'spread like wildfire' in communities with low vaccination rates, doctor says
The continued spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 could pose a serious risk to the U.S., particularly the unvaccinated population, experts say.
Currently, the variant accounts for 1 in 4 cases in the U.S., according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). But that number could keep rising if vaccination rates don’t start picking up quickly enough. Among those ages 18 and up in the U.S., 57.4% are fully vaccinated, while 66.5% has received at least one shot, according to the latest CDC data. However, there are major disparities across different states.
“We have the short term — the Delta outbreaks, the Delta surges — which are already being seen in places like Missouri, where you have the rise of cases, rising ICU bedding problems, rising hospital admissions,” Dr. Anand Swaminathan, a New Jersey-based emergency medicine physician, told Yahoo Finance Live last week. “And then, there is the delayed consequence. As the Delta variant spreads, it can create other variants.”
CNN reported last week that Missouri has the highest number of cases — 29% — traced to the Delta variant, a mutant strain that originated in India and has since made its way through other countries. Among those ages 18 and up in the state, 56% have received at least one dose of the vaccine, while 49% are fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times analysis of data updated on Thursday. Missouri’s 7-day moving average of new cases is 898, a number that has been slowly increasing over the past month.
“You have some counties in Missouri that have as low as 20% with at least one shot in the arm,” Swaminathan said. “That is a huge problem because Delta or any other variant is going to spread like wildfire in those communities. So we’re really seeing the stark contrast. We’re seeing a divide between those areas that are more vaccinated and are getting even closer to herd immunity and those states and counties that are really lagging behind.”
Other states like Wyoming, Arkansas, and Nevada are also seeing an uptick in the number of COVID cases, according to the Mayo Clinic. Concurrently, less than 50% of the population in each of those three states has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.
“You contrast that to somewhere like New York where about 70% of people have at least one shot and we’re seeing a 40% decline in cases,” Swaminathan said. “It’s a huge, stark difference if people didn’t believe that vaccines were really important. This is a microcosm of exactly that.”
According to The New York Times' vaccine tracker, 60% of New York's population has had at least one dose of the vaccine, and cases had declined 25% in the 14-day period prior to Thursday.