Deere Shares Surge on Optimism Farm Gloom Will Lift in 2025

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(Bloomberg) -- Shares of Deere & Co. jumped to the highest level in more than a year as investors in the biggest farm machinery maker looked past a disappointing profit outlook amid speculation that the slump in agriculture is poised to turn.

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The maker of iconic green and yellow tractors reported fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations, but said net income for fiscal 2025 will be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion. That’s below the $5.83 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The full-year guidance “is ugly, but expectations were already very low,” according to Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli. In one positive sign, North American inventories declined, showing that “destocking is taking hold,” Baird analysts including Mircea Dobre said in a note.

The company’s shares rose as much as 8.2%, the most intraday since February 2023.

The sector has been suffering as sales have dropped from peak levels of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crop prices soaring and gave farmers more to spend on gear. Rivals CNH Industrial NV and AGCO Corp. earlier this month reduced their sales forecasts as results missed estimates. Companies have been cutting production to deal with the high dealer inventories.

Traders and executives have been looking for signs of an end to the industry downturn. Farmer sentiment bounced in October on optimism that economic conditions will improve, according to the Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer. CNH, whose brands include red Case IH and blue New Holland tractors, earlier this month said 2025 could be the bottom of the cycle.

Excessive amounts of used machinery continue to drag on demand for new equipment. Cory Reed, president of worldwide agriculture and turf at Deere, told investors on an earnings call that the situation is improving, though “it’s too early to call an inflection point on used equipment.”

Deere also said it was too soon to know any impacts from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies. He has threatened tariffs on any products Deere makes in Mexico and sells in the US — a potential wild card even as farmer sentiment recently has been rising.

Chief Executive Officer John May said on the call that more than 75% of what Deere sells in the US is assembled domestically. “So we feel really positioned well,” he said.