Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About SBS Transit Ltd (SGX:S61)?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Wed, Apr 17, 2024, 11:54 PM 4 min read

It is hard to get excited after looking at SBS Transit's (SGX:S61) recent performance, when its stock has declined 5.5% over the past three months. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on SBS Transit's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for SBS Transit

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for SBS Transit is:

10% = S$69m ÷ S$682m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each SGD1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made SGD0.10 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

SBS Transit's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

At first glance, SBS Transit seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 8.5%. As you might expect, the 6.8% net income decline reported by SBS Transit is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

That being said, we compared SBS Transit's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 7.7% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — SGX:S61 Past Earnings Growth April 18th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about SBS Transit's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is SBS Transit Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 50% (or a retention ratio of 50%) which is pretty normal, SBS Transit's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, SBS Transit has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Summary

In total, it does look like SBS Transit has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for SBS Transit by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.