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Will Declining Medical Customers Affect Cigna's Q1 Earnings?

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Global health insurance company The Cigna Group CI is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 2, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $6.39 per share on revenues of $60.8 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined by 2 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 6.2%.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research

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For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s revenues is pegged at $252.36 billion, implying a rise of 2.1% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $29.61, signaling growth of 8.3%, year over year.

Cignabeat the earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being negative 0.4%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise

Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise
Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise

Cigna Group price-eps-surprise | Cigna Group Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for Cigna

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

CI has an Earnings ESP of -0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Cigna’s Q1 Results?

Cigna’s revenues are likely to have benefited on the back of solid pharmacy revenues stemming from a well-performing specialty pharmacy business within the Evernorth segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pharmacy revenues indicates 8.4% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s number.

The consensus mark for revenues from the overall Evernorth Health Services segment is pegged at $50.5 billion, indicating 9.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Also, the consensus estimate for fees and other revenues signals 16.8% year-over-year growth.

However, the consensus mark for premiums predicts an 8.6% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Healthcare revenues suggests an 8.5% decrease. The consensus mark for Cigna’s total medical customers is pegged at 18.3 million, indicating a decline from 19.2 million a year ago.