Deal or no deal, a Trump-Kim summit may have major implications for Asia

Deal or no deal, a Trump-Kim summit may have major implications for Asia · CNBC
  • The outcome of the anticipated June 12 meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could impact Asian geopolitics.

  • Whether Pyongyang agrees to staged disarmament, the U.S. reduces troops in South Korea or no deal is reached, the rest of the region may see more instability.

The looming meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could alter Asia's security landscape regardless of whether the politicians reach an agreement or not.

At the heart of any potential deal is the definition of denuclearization . Pyongyang has previously said it may only dismantle nuclear weapons if Washington removes its 28,500 troops in South Korea — an unsettling prospect for Asian allies that rely on America's defense commitments. Alternatively, a failure to ink any sort of pact could bolster U.S. appetite for preemptive strikes against the North — an equally upsetting situation for the region.

Either outcome may threaten stability and put Asian countries on the defensive. Concerned about the high stakes, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is reportedly attempting to join the potential June 12 meeting .

A deal is struck

If Kim agrees to a staged disarmament — a process in which his regime relinquishes nukes in exchange for concessions such as a reduced U.S. military presence on the Peninsula or sanctions relief — the pace and time frame will be key.

If disarmament is way off in the future, "there's probably little impact" on Asia, but if it's scheduled for the next five years and accompanies an influx of cash for the North Koreans as well as a weakening of the U.S.-South Korean security alliance, "that might make Japan worried," said Sharon Squassoni, former director of policy coordination at the State Department's nonproliferation bureau and currently a research professor at George Washington University.

U.S. soldiers have been stationed in the South since the 1950s and a potential withdrawal is of major concern for neighboring Japan.

That is, it raises the possibility of the world's largest economy next closing down its military bases in Japan, analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a Monday note.

Moreover, staged disarmament could leave South Korea and Japan "exposed to the North's shorter-range missiles" with the rogue state's threat likely boosted by a stronger domestic economy, the note continued.

"Any agreement that removes the North Korean nuclear threat from the United States, but leaves Japan and South Korea vulnerable to a North Korean attack would be cause for concern," echoed Troy Stangarone, senior director at Korea Economic Institute, a Washington-based think tank.