In This Article:
CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 14% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 27%, less than the market return of 99%.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, CSX achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.4% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 5% per year. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into CSX's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of CSX's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, CSX's TSR for the last 5 years was 36%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
CSX shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CSX better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - CSX has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.