Demand at Class I railroad CSX remains “fairly stable” amid the uncertainty related to the Trump tariffs, with CEO Joseph Hinrichs remaining bullish on projections of volume growth for 2025.
While the trade policies are making it difficult to project a “reasonable range” for its guidance, Hinrichs said the Jacksonville, Fla.-based company remains “very well positioned to facilitate and benefit from the continued long-term trend toward expansion of U.S. manufacturing capacity.”
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Despite acknowledging current qualms on U.S. consumer spending, chief commercial officer Kevin Boone said in the company’s Wednesday earnings call that in the longer term, reindustrialization would be a boon to the CSX network.
Since the company’s activity primarily covers the U.S. Southeast and Midwest, Hinrichs noted the railroad is working with East Coast ports to get a better understanding of changing freight flows as fewer containers are expected on the trans-Pacific trade lane in the next few months.
“Clearly, with these tariffs, the [freight flows] will change. I think you could see a lot of benefits from decoupling from China that could benefit the East Coast potentially,” Hinrichs said. “We’re watching that…and working with our customers to position them so they can capture the markets as they change.”
The ability to get ahead of any tariff-related acceleration “is probably pretty limited,” according to Boone, but he noted that U.S. exports could move further to the East Coast since the West Coast “has been very leveraged to China.”
Total volume for the railroad declined 1 percent to 1.5 million units, with revenue decreasing 7 percent to $3.4 billion for the quarter. Net income was $646 million, or 34 cents per diluted share.
CSX stock didn’t see much movement in the aftermath of the call, inching up more than 1 percent by the end of Thursday trading.
Intermodal volumes, like fellow transportation and logistics company J.B. Hunt, carried the load for CSX in its first quarter, increasing 2 percent to $716 million. Hinrichs noted that the increase was on the back of an uptick in port traffic, presumably as cargo funneled into ports in the months ahead of the tariff announcements in early April.
“The volume growth for the quarter was driven by international activity, as we saw positive trends in container import flows, sourced from our global partners,” Boone said. “While some of this may have been due to a moderate pull forward ahead of anticipated tariffs, we do not see any real step change in the trend line until we approach the end of March.”