Crypto bettors on the prediction market platform Polymarket are placing fresh wagers on which individuals President-Elect Donald Trump might pardon once he takes office in January. Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road marketplace, is currently one of the most likely potential recipients of a pardon.

Earlier this year, Trump pledged to free Ulbricht to raucous applause at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, a promise he has since reiterated on social media. Last month, he again emphasized his commitment to "save" the convicted cyber criminal on the Truth Social social media platform.

Besides garnering support from Trump, the "Free Ross" campaign has attracted notable figures in the digital asset industry like crypto entrepreneur Erik Voorhees, Roger Ver, and venture capitalist Tim Draper. The digital asset industry views Ulbricht’s case as a symbol of the fight for personal freedom and privacy, with multiple appeals launched on his behalf.

Polymarket users estimate there is a nearly 70% chance that Ulbricht will receive the pardon, with over $1.1 million wagered on predicting Ulbricht’s pardon alone. Other contenders include Trump himself (10% chance), January 6 protestors (78%), crypto enthusiast Edward Snowden (19%), and Julian Assange (16%).

According to the latest data, more than $1.7 million of crypto bets have been placed on Polymarket on Trump’s presidential pardon choices, despite the platform not being open to American customers. This year, bettors poured more than $3 billion on predicting the next winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, correctly guessing that Donald Trump would win re-election and that Joe Biden would drop out of the race earlier this year. The lavish sums spent on these election predictions have caught the attention of French and American law enforcement agencies, including the FBI.

While Trump explicitly trumpeted his promise to pardon Ulbricht earlier this year, Polymarket users are openly debating the probability of the incoming president’s promise going unfulfilled. “I seriously doubt his priority in the first 100 days will be pardoning a[n] international drug trader,” one user wrote about Ulbricht’s prospects for release on Polymarket. Others point out that presidents typically issue pardons toward the end of their term, not at the beginning.

Additionally, some users question the suitability of Ulbricht for a pardon, citing reports that he allegedly paid more than $500,000 in bitcoin to arrange multiple murders. “Ulbricht did try to hire a hit on someone,” one user commented. “Everything with Trump is transactional, and he doesn’t gain anything from pardoning him.”