General Motors (NYSE: GM) gets too much credit from Wall Street and shares are likely to drive nowhere in the next year, one analyst said Wednesday.

While the consensus earnings estimate is $4.57 per share for 2015, Credit Suisse analyst Shreas Patil sees GM missing that number by more than 17 percent.

Patil, who is similarly skeptical of the 2016 consensus of $5 per share, initiated coverage with an Underperform rating and $33 target. GM closed Wednesday nearly unchanged at $33.95 per share.

The 2016 consensus is built on the assumption that GM's gross margin can hit 10 percent. But Patil said price trends suggest a narrowing margin in 2015 and thinks demand estimates are overly optimistic.

GM's ability to boost its recently instituted dividend by 33 percent in Patil's view, offers some downside protection to the shares, but its $2.5 billion recall lowers the likelihood of stock buybacks.

Patil believes it will be difficult for GM to meet its guidance for the second half of 2014 and come January when it announces a 2015 forecast, the shares could fall.

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