Could The Market Be Wrong About Mainfreight Limited (NZSE:MFT) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sun, May 5, 2024, 2:00 PM 3 min read

With its stock down 2.1% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Mainfreight (NZSE:MFT). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. In this article, we decided to focus on Mainfreight's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Mainfreight

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Mainfreight is:

19% = NZ$334m ÷ NZ$1.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every NZ$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn NZ$0.19 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Mainfreight's Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

To start with, Mainfreight's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 13%. This probably laid the ground for Mainfreight's significant 28% net income growth seen over the past five years. However, there could also be other causes behind this growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

Next, on comparing Mainfreight's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 27% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — NZSE:MFT Past Earnings Growth May 5th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is MFT fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Mainfreight Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Mainfreight's three-year median payout ratio is a pretty moderate 40%, meaning the company retains 60% of its income. So it seems that Mainfreight is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Moreover, Mainfreight is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 52% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Mainfreight's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.