Could Harvey Norman Holdings Limited's (ASX:HVN) Weak Financials Mean That The Market Could Correct Its Share Price?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sun, Mar 2, 2025, 5:07 PM 4 min read

Harvey Norman Holdings' (ASX:HVN) stock up by 9.2% over the past three months. Given that the markets usually pay for the long-term financial health of a company, we wonder if the current momentum in the share price will keep up, given that the company's financials don't look very promising. Specifically, we decided to study Harvey Norman Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Harvey Norman Holdings is:

9.3% = AU$438m ÷ AU$4.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.09.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Harvey Norman Holdings' Earnings Growth And 9.3% ROE

On the face of it, Harvey Norman Holdings' ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 9.3%, we may spare it some thought. But Harvey Norman Holdings saw a five year net income decline of 7.3% over the past five years. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.

However, when we compared Harvey Norman Holdings' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 7.6% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:HVN Past Earnings Growth March 3rd 2025

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is HVN fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Harvey Norman Holdings Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Harvey Norman Holdings has a high three-year median payout ratio of 58% (that is, it is retaining 42% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Harvey Norman Holdings.

Additionally, Harvey Norman Holdings has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 75% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

On the whole, Harvey Norman Holdings' performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.