Due in part to lingering drought conditions that have scorched many crops into distress, along with start-of-year decisions to plant fewer acres, the 2023 cotton harvest is forecast to be among the worst in history — both nationally and globally.
While the late spring rainfall initially alleviated the drought and improved the beginning of the growing season — leading to reducing the rates of early-season abandonment compared to last year — the subsequent hot and dry conditions have adversely affected the crop quality in the Southwest, the nation's largest cotton-producing area, which includes Texas.
Currently, the U.S. abandonment rate projection is approximately 22%, landing above the 10-year average but less than half of last year's all-time record of 47%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's most recent Wool and Cotton Outlook report, published in mid-August.
In the Southwest, upland cotton production is forecast at 5 million bales, the second-lowest harvest in decades following last year's 3.5 million bales. The region is forecast to contribute about 36% of the nation's total upland cotton production, according to the report.
Facing this exact reality, Tyler James is a farmer in Hale County with zero remaining cotton. He initially planted around 700 acres — which he describes as his lowest-ever planted acreage since he started farming more than a decade ago — but by mid-June, it was ruined.
"I felt like I was early earlier than I normally am (for planting)," James said, noting he had everything planted around May 11. "I wanted to give it the best chance of survival, and I feel like sometimes that's one of the downsides of cotton is you feel like you're giving it the best chance to survive when you're not. We started getting those rains and were having cool nights; I thought the germs not gonna be awesome, but a couple weeks later, I thought, 'Oh no, this is not good.'"
Into early June, James had still about 80 acres of irrigated cotton remaining and was hopeful that it would prosper through the season. But, within weeks, that hope was lost.
"It went through all the weather," James said. "It probably got flooded twice and was hailed on, and then by the by the middle of June, it was just like burnt matchsticks out there."
Shawn Wade, director of policy and analysis for Plains Cotton Growers, said many regional farmers on the High Plains share a similar story as El Niño began to bring more volatile and more extreme weather to the region.