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Cosmo Pharmaceuticals N.V. (VTX:COPN) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (€97m) coming in 30% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of €0.071 fell 90% short. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Cosmo Pharmaceuticals
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Cosmo Pharmaceuticals from five analysts is for revenues of €209.6m in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 117% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 4,469% to €3.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €160.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.44 in 2024. While revenue forecasts have increased substantially, the analysts are a little more pessimistic on earnings, suggesting that the growth does not come without cost.
Curiously, the consensus price target rose 13% to CHF90.09. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Cosmo Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF110 and the most bearish at CHF69.02 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Cosmo Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 117% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cosmo Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.