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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited (HKG:1199), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. COSCO SHIPPING Ports missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$1.0b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.098, falling short by 3.1% and 7.6% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on COSCO SHIPPING Ports after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING Ports
Taking into account the latest results, COSCO SHIPPING Ports's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be US$1.03b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$0.098, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2020. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 10% to US$1.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on COSCO SHIPPING Ports, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$1.29 and the most bearish at US$0.52 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the COSCO SHIPPING Ports's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that COSCO SHIPPING Ports's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 0.6%, compared to a historical growth rate of 7.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that COSCO SHIPPING Ports is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.