Who Are the Corporate Winners and Losers from Actions by Elon Musk's DOGE?

Unlock stock picks and a broker-level newsfeed that powers Wall Street. Upgrade Now

Colin Laidley

Wed, Feb 19, 2025, 12:28 PM 4 min read

Executives at defense companies and government contractors have been bombarded in the last month with questions about the outlook for their businesses in light of Elon Musk's quest to cut trillions of dollars from the federal budget.
Most executives have downplayed the risk posed by DOGE, and instead have argued that their companies are well-positioned to assist Musk in his push to make the government more efficient.
Some analysts have noted software firms could benefit from Musk's push to employ AI and data analytics across the federal government.

The Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led group tasked with slashing federal spending, has been on the minds of executives lately. In the past month, DOGE has appeared in the transcripts of over 50 earnings calls and conferences tracked by data provider AlphaSense.

Executives at defense companies and government contractors have fielded most of the DOGE questions. Despite their exposure to government spending, many have insisted that the cost-cutting initiative is an opportunity for their companies.

Federal Contractors Downplay Risk, Tout Opportunity

Shares of Iron Mountain (IRM), a data storage and information management company, declined last week after Musk ridiculed that the U.S. government stores and processes retirement paperwork in a Pennsylvania mine operated by the company. But Iron Mountain’s CEO, Bill Meaney, said on the company’s earnings call two days later that DOGE is more of an opportunity than a risk.

He said the company receives $10 million in revenue for storing physical government documents, but about $130 million for providing agencies with data center and digitization services. “As the government continues to drive to be more efficient, we see this as a continued opportunity for the company,” Meaney said.

Other executives have echoed Meaney’s point. Lynn Moore, the CEO of Tyler Technologies (TYL), a software and services company that caters to the public sector, also downplayed the threat posed by DOGE. “We believe technology is ultimately the greatest driver of efficiency,” said Moore.

Analysts Expect Software Companies To Benefit

Software companies are expected to be some of the prime beneficiaries of Musk’s efficiency push. Bank of America analyst Mariana Perez Mora identified data analytics firm Palantir (PLTR) as a potential winner. “AI and data analytics are critical to unlock timely and better-informed decision making,” Perez Mora wrote in a note to clients last week.

Jefferies analysts in a note on Monday argued DOGE could be a "net positive" for ServiceNow (NOW), which provides workflow management software. “Fed IT teams are being asked to drive productivity gains across the board,” the analysts wrote after attending the ServiceNow Federal Forum outside Washington, D.C., last week. “The feedback is that this will require platform consolidation and leaning into software, which could make NOW a prime beneficiary.”

Defense Industry Sees Potential For More Military Spending

While legacy defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) are among the S&P 500 companies with the highest exposure to government spending, executives have downplayed the risk of DOGE-led budget cuts.

Huntington CEO Christopher Kastner said at an industry conference on Tuesday that he anticipates DOGE’s efforts to streamline the Pentagon will benefit the company. “Simplifying the oversight in the Pentagon, I think, is something that would be positive. I think that's the initial focus,” he said. He also noted the Trump administration’s focus on containing Chinese influence in the Pacific could be a tailwind to the company, which is America’s largest shipbuilder.

Defense executives have also said that reducing non-military spending and streamlining the Pentagon bureaucracy could free up money that, instead of being saved, is spent on weapons. “If they cut costs in certain areas—I’ll call it on the entire budget—that presents an opportunity to put some of those monies back into defense,” said Lockheed Martin CFO Jesus Malave at an industry conference last week.

One Loser So Far: Tesla?

So if everybody’s a DOGE winner, then who’s a DOGE loser? Well, one of the biggest losers on Wall Street so far has been Tesla (TSLA), the EV maker that Musk leads as CEO. Tesla shares have fallen about 15% since Trump's inauguration.

Several factors have contributed to the decline, including tariffs and the stock’s run-up between Trump’s re-election and inauguration. But DOGE, and the time Musk has dedicated to it, are also weighing on the stock, according to Wedbush analysts.

“The autonomous and robotics battle for market share is in full force both in the US and China and many on the Street view Musk spending ‘100% of his time’ with DOGE as creating a negative perception around his Tesla focus,” wrote lead Tesla analyst, Daniel Ives, in a note last week.

Wedbush, however, is still extremely bullish on the stock. The firm’s $550 price target is more than 50% above Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

“Musk has always been able to balance his countless initiatives better than any other CEO we have seen and the innovation and tech machine at Tesla is actually accelerating into an autonomous and robotics future despite growing skepticism around Musk's DOGE balancing act,” said Ives.

Read the original article on Investopedia

Terms and Privacy Policy

Your Privacy Choices

Utah Privacy Notice

More Info