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COPT Defense Establishes 2025 Guidance

In This Article:

FFO per Share to Increase 3.5% at Midpoint

COLUMBIA, Md., February 06, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--COPT Defense Properties (NYSE: CDP) ("COPT Defense" or the "Company") is establishing the following guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025:

2025 Guidance

  • Diluted earnings per share ("EPS") in the range of $1.27−$1.35; and

  • Diluted FFO per share ("FFOPS") - Nareit and as adjusted for comparability, in the range of $2.62−$2.70.

1Q25 Guidance

For the quarter ending March 31, 2025, the Company is establishing the following guidance:

  • EPS in the range of $0.31−$0.33; and

  • FFOPS - Nareit and as adjusted for comparability, in the range of $0.64−$0.66.

2025 Guidance Reconciliation Tables

Reconciliations of projected EPS to projected FFOPS - Nareit and as adjusted for comparability, are as follows:

Table 1: Reconciliation of EPS to FFOPS, per Nareit and As Adjusted for Comparability

 

Quarter ending

 

Year ending

March 31, 2025

 

December 31, 2025

 

 

Low

 

High

 

Low

 

High

EPS

 

$ 0.31

 

$ 0.33

 

$ 1.27

 

$ 1.35

Real estate-related depreciation and amortization

 

0.33

 

0.33

 

1.35

 

1.35

FFOPS, Nareit and as adjusted for comparability

 

$ 0.64

 

$ 0.66

 

$ 2.62

 

$ 2.70

Assumptions Underpinning 2025 Guidance

Tables 2 and 3 detail assumptions that underpin the Company’s 2025 and 1Q25 full year EPS and FFOPS guidance, respectively:

Table 2: Full Year 2025 Guidance Assumptions (a)

 

Metric

2024 Actual

2025

Management Commentary

Low

Midpoint

High

Earnings:

 

 

 

 

 

EPS

$1.23

$1.27

$1.31

$1.35

 

FFOPS – Nareit and as adjusted for comparability

$2.57

$2.62

$2.66

$2.70

Y/Y growth driven by an increase in NOI from the Same Property portfolio, developments placed into service, and 2024 acquisitions, partially offset by higher interest expense, lower interest and other income, and non-recurring items in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Assumptions:

 

 

 

 

 

2025 Same Property Pool:

% Change in Cash NOI

9.1% (b)

2.0%

2.75%

3.5%

Growth in 2025 driven by contractual cash rent increases in leases, commencement of rents from 2023 and 2024 leasing activity, and increases in cash rent at properties added into the 2025 pool, partially offset by non-recurring items in 2024.

Year-end Occupancy

94.1% (b)

93.5%

94.0%

94.5%

Occupancy will be impacted by multiple known non-renewals and downsizes, primarily in 1Q25, partially offset by the commencement of leases executed in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tenant Retention

86%

75%

80%

85%

Of the ~3M SF expiring in 2025, we expect ~600K SF of USG leases will extend short-term into 2026. Tenant Retention guidance pertains to the remaining ~2.4M SF.

Change in Cash Rents on Renewals

0.6%

(1.0%)

0.0%

1.0%

 

Cash NOI from Developments (c)

$10.5

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

~$150M delivered in 2024 (~400K SF, 83% leased), with another ~$250M delivering throughout 2025 (~600K SF, 75% leased). Range is driven by timing of rent commencement, not lease execution risk.

Net Construction Contract and Other Service Revenues

$2.3

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

 

Total G&A Expenses (d)

$47.0

$45.0

$46.0

$47.0

 

Consolidated Interest Expense (net of Capitalized Interest)

$82.2

$89.0

$91.0

$93.0

Increase in interest expense due to a higher projected debt balance and pre-funding the $400M unsecured bond maturity due March 2026 in 4Q25 (net impact of ~1.5c per share), partially offset by higher capitalized interest given anticipated development starts.

Interest and other income, net

$12.7

$8.5

$9.5

$10.5

Decline is driven by lower cash balances, recent and anticipated paydowns of the Note Receivable from City of Huntsville and Other investing loan receivable, partially offset by temporary investment of bond proceeds in 4Q25.

Dividend / Diluted AFFO Payout Ratio

60.6%

Below 65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment Activity:

 

 

 

 

 

Capital Invested in Development / Acquisitions

$189

$250

$275

$300

Anticipated costs incurred on development projects.

Capital Commitment to New Investments

$212

$200

$225

$250

Capital commitments to investments primarily in Fort Meade/BW Corridor and Redstone Arsenal.

Property Sales

-

None

No planned asset sales.

Table 3: 1Q25 Guidance Assumptions (a)

 

 

1Q25 Metric

4Q24 Actual

1Q25

Management Commentary

Low

Midpoint

High

Earnings:

 

 

 

 

 

EPS

$0.31

$0.31

$0.32

$0.33

 

FFOPS – as adjusted for comparability

$0.65

$0.64

$0.65

$0.66

Flat q/q due to rent from lease commencements and development placed in service, offset by higher seasonal operating expenses and a ~50bps decline in same property occupancy due to multiple known non-renewals and downsizes.

a)

Dollars are in millions (except per share data).

b)

Same Property metrics in 2024 refer to the 2024 Pool.

c)

The 2024 actual amount represents cash NOI from developments placed into service during 2023 and 2024. The 2025 assumption amount represents cash NOI from developments placed into service during 2024 and expected to be placed into service during 2025 and, as such, are not yet in the Company’s Same Property portfolio.

d)

Includes G&A, leasing expenses, business development expenses, and land carry cost.

About COPT Defense

COPT Defense, an S&P MidCap 400 Company, is a self-managed REIT focused on owning, operating and developing properties in locations proximate to, or sometimes containing, key U.S. Government ("USG") defense installations and missions (referred to as its Defense/IT Portfolio). The Company’s tenants include the USG and their defense contractors, who are primarily engaged in priority national security activities, and who generally require mission-critical and high security property enhancements. As of December 31, 2024, the Company’s Defense/IT Portfolio of 195 properties, including 24 owned through unconsolidated joint ventures, encompassed 22.4 million square feet and was 96.8% leased.