Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain high through spring but could see year-over-year declines this summer, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The ongoing tariff situation continues to impact import volumes and strategies.
“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a release.
While recent tariff changes on goods from Canada and Mexico are not expected to directly affect port volumes, new levies on Chinese imports remain a significant concern. Tariffs on Chinese goods have already doubled from 10% to 20%, with potential for additional reciprocal tariffs starting in April.
Retail spending declined on a monthly basis in February amid harsh winter weather and concern over tariffs, but continued to grow year over year as the economy remained strong, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, fell 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but were up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January.
Gold emphasized that tariffs ultimately impact American consumers, stating, “Tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.” He noted that while retailers are working on diversifying their supply chains, such changes can’t happen immediately.
Adding to the complexity are proposed U.S. port tolls on Chinese ships of as much as $1.5 million per call. Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet is Chinese-built, this could lead to increased costs throughout the supply chain, said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, in the release.
Hackett predicted that such a fee could alter shipping patterns, with carriers likely to use larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports rather than make multiple stops at smaller ports. While ports managed the surge in import volume during the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, these potential changes could put additional pressure on the supply chain at the largest American gateways and negatively impact smaller hubs.
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