Consumer confidence rises to highest level since July 2023

Tue, Nov 26, 2024, 9:00 AM 2 min read

Americans continue to feel more upbeat about the outlook for the US economy.

The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 111.7 in November, above the 109.6 seen in October and the highest level in more than a year. The expectations index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked up 0.4 percentage points to 92.3, significantly above the threshold of 80 that typically signals recession ahead.

Less than 64% of survey respondents said they believe a US recession is "somewhat" or "very likely" in the next 12 months, marking the lowest number of consumers fearing an incoming recession since the Conference Board began asking the question in July 2022.

“November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. "Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years."

The cutoff date for preliminary results was Nov. 18, meaning any opinions swayed by Donald Trump's Election Day victory were likely factored in.

In November, 33.4% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 34.1% in October. But the number of respondents saying jobs were "hard to get" also fell to 15.2% from 17.6% the month prior, marking the second straight month of decline.

This falls in line with what recent labor market data shows. While monthly payroll addition data has been disrupted by hurricanes and labor strikes, the unemployment rate has moved lower throughout the fall while the number of Americans filing for weekly unemployment claims recently hit its lowest level since April.

Broadly, the US economy has remained on solid footing entering the final month of the year. Recent data showed monthly retail sales continue to track above estimates while US economic output hit its highest level in more than two years during November.