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ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 7.5% to hit US$17b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.23, some 9.7% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ConocoPhillips' 17 analysts is for revenues of US$60.8b in 2025. This reflects a modest 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 5.6% to US$7.11 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$59.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.58 in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a modest to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips
There's been no major changes to the price target of US$118, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ConocoPhillips analyst has a price target of US$140 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$95.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ConocoPhillips' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like ConocoPhillips is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.