Should You Be Concerned About Tera Software Limited's (NSE:TERASOFT) Historical Volatility?

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Anyone researching Tera Software Limited (NSE:TERASOFT) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Volatility is considered to be a measure of risk in modern finance theory. Investors may think of volatility as falling into two main categories. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk' in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

View our latest analysis for Tera Software

What does TERASOFT's beta value mean to investors?

As it happens, Tera Software has a five year beta of 1.03. This is fairly close to 1, so the stock has historically shown a somewhat similar level of volatility as the market. While history does not always repeat, this may indicate that the stock price will continue to be exposed to market risk, albeit not overly so. Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how Tera Software fares in that regard, below.

NSEI:TERASOFT Income Statement, April 10th 2019
NSEI:TERASOFT Income Statement, April 10th 2019

How does TERASOFT's size impact its beta?

Tera Software is a rather small company. It has a market capitalisation of ₹625m, which means it is probably under the radar of most investors. It doesn't take much money to really move the share price of a company as small as this one. That makes it somewhat unusual that it has a beta value so close to the overall market.

What this means for you:

Since Tera Software has a beta close to one, it will probably show a positive return when the market is moving up, based on history. If you're trying to generate better returns than the market, it would be worth thinking about other metrics such as cashflows, dividends and revenue growth might be a more useful guide to the future. In order to fully understand whether TERASOFT is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Tera Software’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following: