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We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) shareholders have done very well over the last year, with the share price soaring by 158%. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.
So notwithstanding the buoyant share price, we think it's well worth asking whether Allakos'cash burn is too risky In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
Check out our latest analysis for Allakos
Does Allakos Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In March 2020, Allakos had US$480m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was US$69m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of about 6.9 years from March 2020. Even though this is but one measure of the company's cash burn, the thought of such a long cash runway warms our bellies in a comforting way. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.
How Is Allakos' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Because Allakos isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by 39%, which suggests that management are increasing investment in future growth, but not too quickly. However, the company's true cash runway will therefore be shorter than suggested above, if spending continues to increase. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.
How Hard Would It Be For Allakos To Raise More Cash For Growth?
Given its cash burn trajectory, Allakos shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.