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The yearly results for Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBSH) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came up short, as sales of US$1.2b were 13% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits didn't suffer quite so much, with statutory per-share earnings of US$2.91 being coming in 4.4% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Commerce Bancshares
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Commerce Bancshares from seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.38b in 2021 which, if met, would be a meaningful 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 32% to US$3.56. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.36 in 2021. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$66.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Commerce Bancshares, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$74.00 and the most bearish at US$53.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Commerce Bancshares' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Commerce Bancshares to grow faster than the wider industry.