Opinion
In This Article:
I need to know the answer to one important question today.
Why are you buying the dip in stocks? Is it because it has worked so well for you in the past five years? Is it that you have so much money invested in the markets that you aren't sure where else to put it? Is there another reason?
Send me your answers on X @BrianSozzi. I'm very curious. I will begin replying after 7:30 a.m. from the parking lot of my gym after I finish working out.
The cold hard data suggests that despite all of the negatives weighing on the markets (tariffs, inflated S&P 500 earnings estimates, slowing economic data — I can go on), investors continue to hit the buy button on dips.
Retail investors have "significantly bulled up" of late, Vanda Track strategist Marco Iachini pointed out. This often-eager investor class has poured $32.9 billion into US markets since the S&P 500's (^GSPC) late February lows. That is in the 97th percentile of any 24-day stretch since 2014, Iachini found.
Retail investors' top purchases during this period were for shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Palantir (PLTR), Amazon (AMZN), and AMD (AMD), in that order.
Investors are showing the strongest conviction in US stocks, which runs counter to various red flags in consumer sentiment surveys.
"The renewed gap between purchases of single stocks and ETFs corroborate the view that retail investors are taking a glass half-full view after a series of half puts from the Fed, macro data and Trump in recent weeks," Iachini wrote. "In particular, the rising share of purchases of Magnificent 7+ names we highlighted two weeks ago has continued to climb higher."
"This shift away from broad ETFs suggests individuals see these names as either on sale or as relative safe havens despite recent underperformance," Iachini added. "Historically, increases in ETF buying coincide with growing fear across market participants. We're not there yet."
Are you one of these individuals buying the dips and excited that the S&P 500 is back above its 200-day moving average (though historical data suggests you should be worried)?
Let me remind you of the backdrop that I would characterize as teeming with risks to stocks.
Auto tariffs are here, and more duties on other stuff are likely coming in a few weeks. Tariffs aren't some BS thing; they stand to cause real harm to companies' profits.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs
JPMorgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman cut estimates and price targets on Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) after the 25% tariff announcement this week, citing "increased potential for material earnings risk from draconian auto tariffs that now seem likelier than ever to be imposed as soon as April 3."