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Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to US$51.44 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Comerica reported US$829m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 beat expectations, being 7.1% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Comerica are now predicting revenues of US$3.38b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 2.1% to US$5.26 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.25 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Comerica
With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 8.6% to US$60.30, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Comerica at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$50.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Comerica shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Comerica's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.3% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.0% annually. Comerica is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.