Column: Nonunion automakers are matching the UAW's great contract, but that may be bad for the UAW

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UAW (United Auto Workers) president Shawn Fain speaks with members of the media and members of the UAW outside of the UAW Local 900 headquarters across the street from the Ford Assembly Plant in Wayne, Michigan on September 15, 2023. The US auto workers' union announced the start of a strike at three factories just after midnight on Friday, September 15, as a deadline expired to reach a deal with employers on a new contract. "Tonight, for the first time in our history, we will strike all three of the Big Three at once," UAW President Shawn Fain said in a webcast two hours before the midnight contract expiration at the three major automakers. (Photo by Matthew Hatcher / AFP) (Photo by MATTHEW HATCHER/AFP via Getty Images)
UAW President Shawn Fain announces the start of a series of strikes that ultimately brought the union success in contract negotiations with the Big Three automakers. (Matthew Hatcher / AFP/Getty Images)

A funny thing happened in the wake of the United Auto Workers' recent contract settlements with major auto companies .

Toyota said it would give its workers a raise worth about 9% on its top pay rate, beginning in January.

Nissan said its 9,000 U.S. workers would get raises of about 10% and it would end a two-tiered pay system.

When we return to the bargaining table in 2028, it won’t just be with a Big Three, but with a Big Five or Big Six.

UAW President Shawn Fain

Honda announced a pay raise of 11% for workers at its plants in Ohio, Indiana and Georgia, along with an accelerated schedule of bringing workers up to the top rate to three years from six.

Subaru said it would raise pay at its plant in Lafayette, Ind., though it hasn't said by how much.

What's funny about these announcements is that none of these companies is covered by a UAW contract. But they could read the handwriting on the wall from the UAW's contract settlements. If they didn't, UAW President Shawn Fain made sure they wouldn't miss the message.

As some of the leading nonunion shops in the industry, they responded almost instantaneously. Before the ink had dried on the union's agreements with GM, Ford and Stellantis (the owner of Chrysler and Jeep), Fain announced that his next targets would be the foreign automakers that had set up their shops in anti-labor states to keep unions from their doors.

“One of our biggest goals coming out of this historic contract victory is to organize like we’ve never organized before,” Fain said. “When we return to the bargaining table in 2028, it won’t just be with a Big Three, but with a Big Five or Big Six.” (He also signaled that he would be pushing to unionize Tesla.)

There are a few ways to look at this. One is that the UAW has absorbed the lesson that the key to organizing new locations and recruiting new members is achieving victory in contract negotiations. That's what brings union membership out of the abstract and makes its benefits concrete.

Read more: Column: American unions have finally remembered how to win

Few things spell success like the contract terms reached by the UAW after its six-week strikes in September and October — including historic wage gains, the rollback of many concessions the union gave the companies to ensure their survival during the last recession, and assurances that the industry's transition to electric vehicle manufacture won't proceed without union participation. As far as that goes, the new contracts are a great advertisement for the virtues of union membership.