COLUMN-India's coal imports stumble in August, raising risk of slow recovery: Russell

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(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

* GRAPHIC - India's seaborne coal imports vs. Indonesian price: https://tmsnrt.rs/3gJdqvD

By Clyde Russell

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 1 (Reuters) - After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart its economy amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

India's imports of both thermal coal, used in power stations, and coking coal, used to make steel, are estimated at around 12.2 million tonnes in August, according to Refinitiv vessel-tracking and port data.

The data includes seven ships that were discharging cargoes as of the last day of August, meaning there are likely to be minor revisions depending on whether these cargoes are assessed as having cleared in August or September.

Nonetheless, it appears the imports in August won't match July's 12.7 million tonnes, the strongest in three months.

India's coal imports were hit hard by the economic lockdowns imposed from March onwards to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus in the world's second-most populous nation and second-biggest coal importer.

July's imports were a recovery from June's 8.8 million tonnes, the lowest since Refinitiv started assessing shipments in January 2015. It's worth noting, though, the July volume was still down 17% from the same month in 2019.

The same can be said for the estimated August figure, which is 24% below the 16.03 million tonnes recorded for the same month in 2019, indicating by how much import demand has been curtailed.

For the first eight months of the year, based on the estimated August volume, India's imports of 112.96 million tonnes were 18.9% below the level for the same period last year.

India's major suppliers, Indonesia and Australia, appear to be sharing the pain of the drop-off in imports.

India's imports from Indonesia, which supplies mainly thermal coal, fell 23% to 46.4 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, from 60.25 million tonnes last year.

Australia, shipping mainly coking coal, also suffered a 23% drop, with India's year-to-date imports falling to 23.4 million tonnes from 30.5 million in the January-August period of 2019.

PRICES SLUMP

The sharp fall in India's imports have had a deleterious impact on prices, with the weekly index for Indonesian coal with an energy value of 4,200 kilocalories per kg, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, falling to its lowest since assessments started in 2008.