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It's been a mediocre week for Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$33.20 in the week since its latest annual results. Cognex reported US$915m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 beat expectations, being 4.8% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Cognex
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Cognex's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$986.7m in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 40% to US$0.87. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$45.51, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cognex at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$37.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Cognex's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.9% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cognex is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.