Is Codan Limited's (ASX:CDA) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Mon, Dec 9, 2024, 10:21 PM 4 min read

Codan (ASX:CDA) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 15% over the last three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Codan's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Codan

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Codan is:

18% = AU$81m ÷ AU$447m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.18 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Codan's Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

To begin with, Codan seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 8.0%. Probably as a result of this, Codan was able to see a decent growth of 6.8% over the last five years.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Codan's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 11% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:CDA Past Earnings Growth December 10th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is CDA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether CDA is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Codan Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Codan has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 51%, meaning that it is left with only 49% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Additionally, Codan has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 49% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Codan's future ROE will rise to 23% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Codan has some positive attributes. The company has grown its earnings moderately as previously discussed. Still, the high ROE could have been even more beneficial to investors had the company been reinvesting more of its profits. As highlighted earlier, the current reinvestment rate appears to be quite low. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.