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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For instance the Coca-Cola HBC AG (LON:CCH) share price is 113% higher than it was three years ago. That sort of return is as solid as granite. In more good news, the share price has risen 20% in thirty days. We note that Coca-Cola HBC reported its financial results recently; luckily, you can catch up on the latest revenue and profit numbers in our company report.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
See our latest analysis for Coca-Cola HBC
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Coca-Cola HBC was able to grow its EPS at 15% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 29% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Coca-Cola HBC has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Coca-Cola HBC, it has a TSR of 134% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Coca-Cola HBC has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 40% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Coca-Cola HBC better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Coca-Cola HBC that you should be aware of before investing here.