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Shareholders might have noticed that Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to US$44.67 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CN¥8.9b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥6.69. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Baozun
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Baozun's twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥12.0b in 2021, which would reflect a major 36% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 35% to CN¥9.24. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥9.46 in 2021. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Baozun after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.
Curiously, the consensus price target rose 7.6% to CN¥314. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Baozun analyst has a price target of CN¥60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥36.07. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Baozun is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Baozun's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 36% annualised growth to the end of 2021 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 24% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Baozun is expected to grow much faster than its industry.