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Unsurprisingly, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited's (ASX:CUV) stock price was strong on the back of its healthy earnings report. However, we think that shareholders may be missing some concerning details in the numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals
A Closer Look At Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to June 2024, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals had an accrual ratio of 0.31. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of AU$31m, which is significantly less than its profit of AU$35.6m. Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits. The good news for shareholders is that Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' Profit Performance
Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But at least holders can take some solace from the 43% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.