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Despite mounting uncertainty over tariffs, trade policy and the economy, most major railroads held firm on their 2025 outlooks — contrasting with a wave of guidance cuts across other industries.
Among the five publicly traded Class I railroads, Canadian National, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific kept their guidance intact, while Canadian Pacific Kansas City and CSX made slight downward adjustments during their first-quarter earnings calls over the past three weeks.
The guidance serves as a key barometer of executives’ confidence in market conditions.
CPKC (NYSE: CP) maintained its forecast for mid-single-digit volume growth but trimmed its earnings guidance slightly, citing the impact of a stronger-than-expected Canadian dollar. (The company reports in Canadian dollars.)
“We’re undoubtedly off to a strong start in 2025 and we’re experiencing a strong start to the second quarter as well,” CEO Keith Creel said. “That being said, there’s certainly an undeniable macro-environment uncertainty that exists, trade policy uncertainty, and currency uncertainty. As such, based on what we do know today, we do feel it’s prudent and responsible to adjust our guidance at this time.”
Despite tariff risks to its cross-border network, CPKC still expects merger-related volume growth this year. It also aims to develop new traffic linking Canada and Mexico as the U.S. raises trade barriers.
“We stepped into this trade storm that we’re facing to become market makers. We’re seeing opportunities with new trade flows between Canada and Mexico,” Creel said. They include southbound shipments of refined fuels, LPGs, plastics and grain and northbound moves of appliances, furniture, food products, finished vehicles and auto parts.
Similarly, CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) still expects to see full-year volume growth but withdrew prior guidance that put traffic gains in a range of 2% to 5%. Chief Commercial Officer Kevin Boone said freight demand remains strong despite the trade war that is creating economic uncertainty. The railroad also is banking on carload growth as new customer facilities open and ramp up production this year.
CPKC and CSX were far from alone as many major companies reduced their financial guidance or pulled it outright when announcing first-quarter earnings. Among the companies to suspend or reduce their outlooks: GM, Stellantis, UPS, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines and Harley-Davidson.
CN (NYSE: CNI) projects that its revenue ton-miles will increase by 2% to 5% this year. Its forecast depends largely on support from new customer facilities coming online this year, as well as easy comparisons to last year, when labor unrest at the railway and Canadian ports dented volumes.