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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Civista Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:CIVB), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.8% short of analyst estimates at US$31m, and statutory earnings of US$0.57 per share missed forecasts by 9.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Civista Bancshares
After the latest results, the five analysts covering Civista Bancshares are now predicting revenues of US$132.1m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 9.8% to US$2.32 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$133.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.34 in 2022. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$29.17. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Civista Bancshares analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.50. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Civista Bancshares is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Civista Bancshares' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Civista Bancshares is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.