Cimpress plc Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

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Last week, you might have seen that Cimpress plc (NASDAQ:CMPR) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$71.25 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$805m, in line with estimates, while Cimpress reported a statutory loss of US$0.50 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Cimpress

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NasdaqGS:CMPR Earnings and Revenue Growth November 3rd 2024

After the latest results, the dual analysts covering Cimpress are now predicting revenues of US$3.48b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 38% to US$3.86 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.59 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$115, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Cimpress'historical trends, as the 5.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 5.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Cimpress is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cimpress' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.


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