Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSE:CHR) last week reported its latest second-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a pretty bad result, given that revenues fell 12% short of analyst estimates at CA$351m, and the company reported a statutory loss of CA$0.84 per share instead of the profit that the analysts had been forecasting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Chorus Aviation

Taking into account the latest results, the eight analysts covering Chorus Aviation provided consensus estimates of CA$1.50b revenue in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 13% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.5% to CA$0.24. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$1.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.28 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$3.33 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chorus Aviation at CA$4.05 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$2.75. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Chorus Aviation shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 24% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Chorus Aviation is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chorus Aviation. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$3.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chorus Aviation. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chorus Aviation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Chorus Aviation (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.