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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb 4, 2025, after the closing bell.
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In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8%. CMG has an impressive record of surpassing earnings expectations. It has exceeded the consensus mark in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.8%, as shown in the chart below.
CMG Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Trend in CMG’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, indicating an improvement of 14.3% from the 21 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate has been unchanged in the past 60 days.
For quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $2.85 billion, suggesting an increase of 13.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
What Our Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +1.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Chipotle’s Q4 Performance
Chipotle's fourth-quarter 2024 performance is likely to have been aided by digital initiatives, Chipotlane add-ons and restaurant openings. The company’s investment in technology and innovation is likely to have bolstered its operations. AI-driven hiring platforms have reduced recruitment times by up to 75%, allowing managers to focus on team development and guest satisfaction.
Digitization has also enhanced its delivery system. Partnerships with Uber Eats and Grubhub are attracting customers. The company has also expanded its digital capabilities into Canada. Collaboration with major third-party delivery aggregators has increased orders.
Our model predicts fourth-quarter food and beverage revenues to increase 13.3% year over year to $2.83 billion. Delivery service revenues are expected to be $17.7 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 5.4%.
Higher transactions, increased average checks and restaurant openings are likely to have driven comps growth in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts year-over-year comps growth of 6.5% for the fourth quarter.
Elevated costs concerning avocados and wage pressures are likely to have hurt margins in the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company anticipates inflation across the cost of sales and labor costs to be in the low-single digits.
Our model predicts food, beverage and packaging costs to be $880.5 million, up 17.8% year over year. Per the model, labor costs are expected to increase 13.9% to $716.9 million. Our model predicts a restaurant-level margin of 24.6%. In fourth-quarter 2023, the company had reported a restaurant-level margin of 25.4%.