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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on April 23, 2025.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2%. CMG has an impressive record of surpassing earnings expectations. It has exceeded the consensus mark in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.2%, as shown in the chart below.
CMG’s Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Trend in Chipotle’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at 28 cents per share, indicating an improvement of 3.7% from the 27 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate has been unchanged in the past 30 days. Other industry players like McDonald's Corporation MCD, CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA and Yum! Brands, Inc.’s YUM earnings in the quarter-to-be-reported are likely to increase 4.4%, 31% and 9.1% year over year, respectively.
For quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $2.93 billion, suggesting an increase of 8.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
What Our Model Unveils for CMG
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of -1.80%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping Chipotle’s Q1 Performance
CMG's first-quarter 2025 performance is likely to have been aided by strong digitalization, expansion efforts and the debut of Chipotle Honey Chicken in early March. The company’s investment in technology and innovation is likely to have bolstered its operations.
With digital orders accounting for more than a third of its sales, the company’s mobile app and “Chipotlane” drive-thru pickup windows are creating faster, more convenient ways for customers to engage with the brand. These enhancements continue to increase average check sizes but also boost efficiency, contributing to stronger unit economics.
Digitization has also enhanced Chipotle’s delivery system. Partnerships with Uber Eats and Grubhub are attracting customers. The company has also expanded its digital capabilities into Canada. Collaboration with major third-party delivery aggregators has increased orders.
Our model predicts first-quarter food and beverage revenues to increase 8.4% year over year to $2.9 billion. Delivery service revenues are expected to be $17.2 million, suggesting a year-over-year decrease of 1.2%.