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China's smartphone market on track to recover in 2024 as consumers eye upgrades, says IDC report

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China's smartphone market is expected to bounce back in the fourth quarter of 2023 and continue its improving streak into next year, posting its first annual growth in three years, according to market forecasts released this week.

China, the world's largest smartphone market, is expected to ship 287 million units in 2024, a 3.6 per cent year on year increase, driven by an improving macroeconomy and consumer appetite for better gadgets, according to a report released by IDC on Thursday.

It would be the first year-on-year growth in the market since 2021. Shipment volumes in the following years are expected to remain stable, IDC added.

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Consumers are increasingly eyeing upgrades to models with more storage, and fierce rivalry among domestic smartphone brands will push vendors to launch more competitive products next year, according to IDC.

China's smartphone industry has been under pressure in recent years due to weaker consumer demand from macroeconomic headwinds and Covid-related disruptions. However, it showed signs of recovery in the fourth quarter thanks to the attention around Huawei's latest Mate 60 series and promotions during the Singles' Day shopping festival in November.

Fourth-quarter smartphone shipment volumes in China are likely to grow for the first time in 10 quarters, according to IDC.

Competition has been intense since Huawei's comeback in the high-end 5G segment with the Mate 60 Pro and the release of the iPhone 15 in September, followed by Xiaomi's flagship Mi 14 series model which achieved sales of 1 million units in less than two weeks since its October launch.

Customers try Xiaomi's Mi 14 series phones at a company store in Shanghai, October 28, 2023. Photo: CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images alt=Customers try Xiaomi's Mi 14 series phones at a company store in Shanghai, October 28, 2023. Photo: CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images>

Huawei surprised the industry in August when it announced the Mate 60 Pro, a handset equipped with an advanced made-in-China 5G chip, despite US tech sanctions intended to stifle its access to such technology.

Smartphone sales in China rose 11 per cent in the first four weeks of October compared with the same period last year, according to a report published by Counterpoint Research, with Huawei's sales soaring 90 per cent in the same period.