HONG KONG (AP) — China's economy expanded at a 5% annual pace in 2024, slower than the year before but in line with Beijing’s target of “around 5%” growth, thanks to strong exports and recent stimulus measures.
The economy picked up speed in the last quarter, the government reported Friday, growing 5.4% in October-December.
Exports have surged as companies and consumers rush to beat potential tariff hikes President-elect Donald Trump may impose on Chinese goods.
“The national economy was generally stable with steady progress and new achievements were made in high-quality development,” the report by the National Bureau of Statistics said. "Particularly, with a package of incremental policies being timely rolled out, public confidence was effectively bolstered and the economy recovered remarkably,” it said.
Manufacturing was a strong engine for growth last year, with industrial output jumping 5.8% from a year earlier. Total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.5% at an annual rate. Exports expanded 7.1% in annual terms, while imports grew 2.3%.
The world’s second largest economy has struggled with weaker consumer spending and resulting deflationary pressures as its recovery after the COVID 19 pandemic faltered and the property sector, once a main driver of business activity, fell into a downturn.
The Chinese economy grew at a 5.2% annual rate in 2023, and economists have forecast that it will slow further in coming years.
Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said that the economy regained some momentum last quarter thanks to recent policy easing.
“Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity,” Huang said in a report. “We still expect growth to slow for 2025 as a whole, with Trump likely to follow through on his tariff threats soon and persistent structural imbalances still weighing on the economy.”
China’s population also is aging and declining, adding to pressures on growth. The government reported Friday that the population fell for a third straight year in 2024, to 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year.
With costs of living rising faster than wages, young Chinese are putting off or ruling out marriage and childbirth, accentuating the impact of birth control policies that once limited most families to one child each.
Some economists say the economy is growing at a slower pace than shown in official estimates.
“The precise achievement of the official growth target is highly dubious at a time when most indicators of economic activity and financial markets are flashing red,” Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University, said in an emailed comment.