China’s policymakers disappointed investors this week with a lack of follow-through on recent monetary policy stimulus measures. They get a second chance this weekend.

China’s Ministry of Finance is set to hold a briefing on Saturday local time that’s expected to deliver up to 2 trillion yuan, or about $282 billion, in fiscal stimulus to an economy that continues to stagger under real-estate woes.

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“Our economists highlight that the current market expectation is for a CNY1.5-2 trillion package (excluding CNY1 trillion in recapitalisation for big banks) and it will be important whether the actual announcement meets this threshold after a week of nervousness following a week or so of euphoria,” Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a Friday note.

Euphoria indeed. Chinese stocks ripped higher at the end of September after the announcement of rate cuts and other measures by the People’s Bank of China aimed at breaking the economy out of its funk. But the rally stalled this week as investors returned from a holiday week looking for more support on the fiscal front.

A briefing from the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state economic planning body, on Tuesday failed to outline more stimulus measures, sending stocks into a skid.

The China CSI 300 XX:000300 fell more than 3% this week, while the Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP dropped 3.6% the Hang Seng Index HK:HSI in Hong Kong dropped more than 6%.

China-related ETFs saw sharp falls and were among the week’s biggest decliners. The Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF ASHR was off nearly 14% for the week, while the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB dropped nearly 10%.

Deutsche Bank estimated that the total size of both fiscal and monetary stimulus could potentially reach CNY7.5 trillion, or 6% of GDP in 2024. That would make it the largest package in yuan terms and the third largest relative to GDP, Reid said. On the fiscal side, a CNY2 trillion yuan package would be comparable in size to what the government did in its 2020 pandemic response combined with other measures (see chart below).

“So expect a lot of price action in Chinese stocks on Monday….To be fair, the CSI 300 is still up more than 21% from Sept. 20, but the declines this week demonstrate just how dependent the rally is on stimulus expectations, especially when it comes to the fiscal part of the package,” Reid said.

Meanwhile, the stimulus “could also give a lift to industries in the European economy such as luxury goods manufacturers given their dependence on Chinese consumers,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, in a Friday note.

When it comes to the global macroeconomic backdrop, investors will be watching metals, particularly copper, for clues to how any stimulus proposal is being received.

Copper futures rose 1% on Comex Friday after bouncing the previous session on renewed stimulus hopes, but remained down more than 2% on the week.

“Looking ahead, stabilizing copper prices will be a welcomed and encouraging sign for the macroeconomic backdrop of markets in Q4’24, while renewed selling pressure should be a source of caution for both economic growth expectations and risk assets more broadly,” analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

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