An earthquake that killed at least 1,000 people in Afghanistan last month struck when the country was at its most vulnerable.
The Taliban government that took control in August was already struggling to provide basic healthcare and education and keep food plentiful and affordable, while the bombing of schools and places of worship by sectarian rivals continued.
It did not help that more than US$9 billion in Afghan central bank assets held in Western countries were frozen after the Taliban took power. Around 75 per cent of Afghan government spending was previously financed by foreign aid grants, according to the World Bank, but banks, fearful of sanctions and breaching counterterrorism laws, have been refusing to transfer funds to Afghanistan, hampering efforts to shelter quake survivors and control the spread of diseases.
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China has been proactive in reaching out to the Taliban to forge semi-official ties and has called for the release of frozen funds. But the future of ties between the countries remains uncertain, analysts say, because of Afghanistan's volatility and Beijing's reservations about whether relations can lead to a stable and profitable partnership.
"In China's assessment, it faces great risk with the situation in Afghanistan," said Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University in China's Gansu province. "That's to say that China realises that there is political uncertainty."
That uncertainty stems from whether the Taliban can hold on to power and gain international recognition as the lawful government of Afghanistan, he said, which added to the existing reluctance of Chinese companies to fund infrastructure projects due to security concerns and scepticism about economic returns.
Ensuring stability in China's northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, which shares a narrow border with Afghanistan, is a top concern for Beijing when managing its ties with Kabul.
When Foreign Minister Wang Yi met a Taliban delegation in China last July as its forces continued to capture Afghan provinces, he told it to "draw the line" with terrorist organisations including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which he described as a "direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity".
Beijing has long accused ETIM of promoting Uygur separatism in Xinjiang.
Wang has pressed the issue repeatedly in diplomatic meetings and dialogue, most recently on Monday, in a call with his Taliban counterpart.
"We believe that the Afghan side will take practical measures to resolutely combat all terrorist forces, including the 'East Turkestan Islamic Movement', and strengthen the security protection of Chinese citizens and institutions in Afghanistan," he was quoted as saying by his ministry.
But repeated bombings in Afghanistan claimed by Islamic State Khorasan, an Isis affiliate that is hostile towards the Afghan Taliban because of sectarian differences, have raised questions over whether the Taliban is capable of maintaining security.
How it handled the humanitarian crisis caused by the June 22 earthquake only added to the scepticism. With resources at public hospitals and clinics already stretched because of the freezing of Afghanistan's foreign reserves, poor communications and a patchy road network meant it was difficult for aid to reach the poor, remote villages worst hit by the quake. Survivors were left to dig by hand as they searched for others stuck under rubble.
"The internal situation in Afghanistan is very complex and not everything should or can be managed by China," said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, while adding that there had not been a threat to China's national security directed, condoned or allowed by the Taliban since it took power.
The Taliban did not respond to a request for comment.
China, wary of the lessons learned by the United States and the Soviet Union, was not likely to place boots on the ground, said Stefanie Kam, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies' political violence centre in Singapore.
But it was moving towards "constructive intervention", where it would not refrain from shoring up its security presence in countries with Chinese nationals and investments, she said.
"Of course, it wants to signal on a political level as well about the superiority of its political system that does not necessarily require military interventions to bring about peace and development in Afghanistan, but through, perhaps, economic inducements or working through third-party channels like Pakistan."
Fatima Airan, a researcher at the Biruni Institute, a think tank based in Kabul, said China had invested in few projects in Afghanistan, and with the Taliban in charge it had become even more reluctant to invest.
"For China, the market is not stable enough in Afghanistan because of the insecurity," she said. "They will not take the risk to bring a large-scale investment project to Afghanistan because the situation is not clear in the long term and the return is not clear as well."
Conflict in Afghanistan and the activities of ETIM have discouraged Chinese firms from extending Belt and Road Initiative projects, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Five Nations Railway Corridor, to Afghanistan, Airan said.
"There are more resistance groups fighting the Taliban, and also because of the recent attacks on [Chinese] civilians in Pakistan," she said. "I think that was also a warning for China, to be more cautious in Afghanistan as well."
Chinese nationals working on infrastructure projects in Pakistan have been targeted by separatist insurgent groups, most notably the Baloch Liberation Army that accuses Chinese companies of exploiting local resources.
The Taliban, unlike the Afghan government it replaced, is not trained to counter terrorism, Airan said.
Frozen foreign assets have hindered the Taliban's ability to rebuild the country, but Zhu said that even if the assets were unfrozen and returned to Afghanistan in full, it would not transform the country.
"It will help, but won't help fundamentally because the hole that is Afghanistan, this black hole, this pit, is too big," he said.
The lack of industry, modern economic order, transport infrastructure and basic education added to ideological extremism and security concerns to impede efforts to overcome poverty and underdevelopment, Zhu said.
Kam said the Taliban had not been able to demonstrate that it could provide the basic goods and provisions needed by the Afghan people. "And the fact that militants continue to operate ... will continue to be a problem," she said.
Beyond security concerns that have fuelled a lack of confidence in Afghanistan's economic future under the Taliban, China has repeatedly called for the group to establish a more inclusive and moderate government.
Not affording women and girls the same rights as men and boys is one of many issues preventing the Taliban from establishing official ties with other countries. In May, the group ordered women to cover their faces in public, and girls are no longer allowed to attend high school.
Unlike Western governments, Beijing has not clearly criticised the Taliban for the curtailment of women's rights. But Shi said it remained an issue blocking international recognition of the Taliban as Afghanistan's lawful government.
"The way the Taliban treat women is probably much better than it was before they took control of the country, but it is still far from acceptable to Western governments and public opinion," he said.
Airan said the issue "is going to bring a little pressure to the Taliban if they are not recognised by China or ... Western countries".
"That might probably change their perspective a bit," she said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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