Chinese exports reached record levels in December as companies made a mad dash to get product into the U.S. ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House—and the expected imposition of a new slate of tariffs on goods originating in the country.
Outbound shipments during the month rose 10.7 percent year-on-year to 2.5 trillion yuan ($335.6 billion), according to China’s General Administration of Customs. The numbers are a stark improvement over November’s 6.7 percent annual increase, and surpass the 7.3 percent growth anticipated by a Reuters poll of economists.
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According to the government agency, exports to the U.S. jumped 16 percent year over year in December alone. The aggressive increase comes as Trump’s tariff proposals are still not set in stone, with the President-elect saying in November the U.S. would begin charging additional 10-percent duties on China-made goods.
For the full year, China’s exports worldwide grew by 5.9 percent to 25.5 trillion yuan ($3.6 trillion).
“The double-digit rise in December exports…supports our earlier judgment that the threat of tariffs could affect export patterns in the next couple of quarters, with a potential boost in shipments before the introduction of new tariffs, followed by a drop-off,” Barclays analysts said in a note.
December imports into China surprised to the upside with 1 percent growth to 1.7 trillion yuan ($231 billion), the strongest performance since July 2024. Reuters-polled economists expected a 1.5 percent decline.
With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus grew to $104.8 billion in December, and nearly $1 trillion for the year, at $992.2 billion.
December is anticipated to see a massive flow of cargo into U.S. seaports as retailers and brands continue to front-load ahead of the tariffs. The monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates projects December at 2.24 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 19.2 percent year over year.
That report also expects a 10 percent-TEU bump in January.
With President-elect Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the stakes for Chinese exports are likely to be higher not just into the U.S., but into countries like Mexico, which is slapping tariffs of its own on goods like textiles. The country’s new presidential administration modified its IMMEX trade program so that finished apparel goods could no longer enter Mexico tax-free.