The United States imports roughly $500 billion in goods and services from China each year. So if President Trump imposes tariffs on $150 billion worth of those imports—as he has threatened to do—there’d still be room to up the ante.
China only imports about $130 billion worth of US goods and services each year. So if China wanted to match all of Trump’s tariffs—as it has vowed to do—it would run out of imports to tax.
That would seem to give the United States an advantage in a trade showdown with China, which may be why Trump is bucking most mainstream advice and courting this trade war. But China can harm American interests in a variety of ways Trump may not be taking into account. “There are lots of different ways China can retaliate,” says Scott Kennedy, director of the project on Chinese business and political economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In the short term, China is certainly able to put a lot of pain on its targets.”
If Trump goes through with his tariffs, here are some of the things China might do in response, beyond matching tariffs:
Harass US companies operating in China. American firms have invested $256 billion in China since 1990, with companies such as Apple, Nike, General Motors, Ford, Starbucks and many others earning profits there that benefit shareholders back home. China can shut down foreign business at will, on pretexts such as safety violations or licensing snafus. As part of an ongoing dispute with South Korea last year, China shut down dozens of outlets of a Korean retailer operating in China. A few years ago, China punished Daimler, BMW and Audi for “antitrust” violations in what was really a campaign to get them to lower prices. American firms could find themselves subject to similar tactics.
Cause geopolitical trouble. The United States butts heads with China on a number of issues that aren’t commercial in nature, including the independence of Taiwan (which China views as part of China), a military buildup in the South China Sea and, of course, sanctions against North Korea. China could flex its muscles on any of those issues and take a harder line against American interests.
Impose bigger tariffs. Trump’s tariffs would generally be in the range of 25%. China could put higher tariffs on US imports to compensate for the smaller amount of imports. Trump could raise US tariffs in return, but if he did that, he’d be intensifying the pain for American firms and consumers purchasing those products, who’d be paying increasingly more for them.
Drive a wedge between the United States and other trade partners. China could sweeten its trade arrangements with European nations or others, as its relationship with the United States deteriorates. Many trade experts point out that the United States increasingly acts on its own under Trump, by withdrawing from the Paris climate accord and the Trans Pacific Partnership, for instance, and pursuing trade protections without consulting allies. Going it alone leaves other nations freer to act without concern for American interests.