China-Britain relations expected to face further challenges no matter who replaces Boris Johnson as prime minister
South China Morning Post
5 min read
The departure of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has emerged as a leading hawk on China and Russia among Western leaders, may lead to a period of uncertainties in China-UK relations, diplomatic observers said.
Right after Johnson announced his resignation on Thursday as leader of the Conservative Party following a cabinet mutiny over a series of bruising scandals, it grabbed headlines in China's state-controlled media and social media, with many gloating about his dramatic fall from grace.
China's foreign ministry refused to comment directly on Johnson's decision to resign, saying it was "an internal British matter". Instead, spokesman Zhao Lijian sent a message to his successor, who is likely to be chosen in a Conservative Party leadership contest that may not finish until early October.
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"No matter how British politics changes, we hope that the British side will take the long-term and overall situation into consideration, work with the Chinese side halfway, and promote the sustainable and stable development of bilateral relations," he said on Friday.
However, with a hardening of negative perceptions of China in Britain, Chinese observers have cautioned against hopes that the rapidly deteriorating ties between Beijing and London will see a major turnaround under Johnson's successor.
They said Johnson, who announced he would stay on as prime minister until a successor was named, had left a mixed legacy on foreign policy, especially when it came to China.
Pang Zhongying, an specialist in international affairs from Sichuan University, described Johnson as a capable leader who, despite being erratic and divisive, had helped Britain regain prominence with his fervent support for Ukraine against Russia and shrewd diplomacy on the world stage.
He noted that after Brexit, Britain had been playing "an outsized role" in many multilateral institutions, such as Nato, the Group of 7, the Group of 20 and Aukus, the three-way security pact between the United States, Britain and Australia.
The hosting of the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow last year and Britain's application to join the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade bloc have helped lift London's international standing, according to Pang.
"While Johnson is not very popular in China, it's fair to say he has played an important role in steadying bilateral ties amid challenges and headwinds in the post-Covid-19 world," he said.
Johnson, who replaced Theresa May as prime minister in July 2019, initially hoped to adopt a nuanced, pro-business approach towards China despite bilateral ties having already cooled after a short-lived "golden era" under his predecessor David Cameron.
He described himself as a fervent "Sinophile" last year and his government has reportedly demanded the resumption of trade talks with China even after London decided to officially boycott this year's Winter Olympics in Beijing.
But China's initial mishandling of the pandemic crisis became a turning point in both Britain's public views of China and Johnson's attitude towards China.
According to Shi Yinhong, a professor of international affairs at Beijing's Renmin University, there was an about-face in Johnson's stance on China after he recovered from Covid-19 two years ago, aligning his government more closely with the US administration under Donald Trump.
He has also been under growing pressure from his own party over a wide range of issues, from Beijing's imposition of the controversial national security law for Hong Kong, its military intimidation of Taiwan and the alleged mass crackdown against Uygur Muslims in Xinjiang.
He also opened a pathway for millions of Hongkongers to gain British residency and, eventually, citizenship.
In May, Beijing lambasted Johnson's signing of a defence and security pact with Japan as "provoking confrontation". On Sunday, China's foreign ministry slammed Johnson's criticism of China's handling of Hong Kong on the July 1 handover anniversary as meddling in China's internal affairs.
"Under Johnson, Britain has become the most hardline voice on China and Russia in the West, alongside Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. His departure would inevitably be seen as a sign of weakness among the US-led West on its alliance against Russia," Shi said.
Shi said that no matter who replaced Johnson, relations between Britain and China were likely to face a period of greater uncertainty.
"While it is possible that the next UK leader may want to have greater trade ties with China, it won't make much difference in terms of overall relations, as trade has increasingly been seen as an inseparable part of economic security," he said.
"The world has changed substantially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and it is unfathomable that the deterioration of bilateral ties between China and the UK can be improved significantly or even turned around any time soon."
Pang of Sichuan University also agreed, pointing to London's growing alignment with US President Joe Biden who views the US-China rivalry as a long fight between democracies and authoritarianism.
"Values-driven diplomacy would pose major challenges to China's relations with Britain and other Western powers, which will inevitably see further disintegration of trade and other ties between Beijing and Washington and its allies," he said.
