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Last week, you might have seen that China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd (SGX:G92) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to S$1.14 in the past week. China Aviation Oil (Singapore) reported US$20b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.12 beat expectations, being 7.4% higher than what analysts expected. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for China Aviation Oil (Singapore)
Taking into account the latest results, China Aviation Oil (Singapore)'s four analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be US$20.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 2.4% to US$0.11 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2020. Analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 11% to S$1.64, with analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Aviation Oil (Singapore) at S$2.11 per share, while the most bearish prices it at S$1.25. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 1.9% a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same market are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that China Aviation Oil (Singapore)'s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider market.