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(Bloomberg) — US President Donald Trump’s plan to revoke Chevron Corp.’s (CVX) operating license in Venezuela threatens to force the nation’s oil sector back into the shadows, paving the way for corruption and huge discounts in the Asian market.
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The presence of the Houston-based oil giant brought much-needed transparency to Venezuela after a period of sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term. In those days, the country relied on ghost cargoes and small traders, resulting in billions of dollars of lost revenue for state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA between 2020 and 2022.
Widespread graft and an ensuing power struggle led President Nicolás Maduro to purge one of his top allies, Tareck El Aissami, with the former energy minister now behind bars in Caracas. Analysts and economists warned that without Chevron as an active participant, Venezuela’s crude sector is headed back to something similar since all the nation’s oil revenue would flow through PDVSA.
“If the US and Western energy companies pull out of Venezuela, Maduro will increasingly be forced to rely on shady intermediaries to ship its oil,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Trump declared Wednesday that he plans to scrap the waiver that put Chevron on track to ramp up exports from Venezuela to a seven-year high this month. His pronouncement also raises questions about the other oil majors the US government has allowed to keep producing Venezuelan crude, including Repsol SA (REP.MC) of Spain and France’s Maurel & Prom (MAU.PA).
Should Trump follow through on his threat and cancel the Chevron license, he would deliver a harsh blow to Venezuela’s incipient economic recovery — potentially fueling more of the irregular migration into the US his government is trying to halt. And in addition to reducing corruption, Chevron’s increased oversight has also helped alleviate the country’s perennial fuel crisis since it could ship its own diluent from the US instead of relying on PDVSA’s dwindling production.
Chevron is “aware of the president’s announcement” and is “considering its implications,” spokesperson Bill Turenne said by email. The company “conducts its business in Venezuela in compliance with all laws and regulations, including the sanctions framework provided by US government.”