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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Chemring Group PLC (LON:CHG) shareholders have enjoyed a 86% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 38% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 7.5%, including dividends.
In light of the stock dropping 5.4% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Chemring Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 13%. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Chemring Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Chemring Group's TSR for the last 5 years was 106%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Chemring Group shareholders are up 7.5% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 16% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.