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Charting the Global Economy: Rocky Start to Year for US Growth

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(Bloomberg) — US consumer spending weakened and the merchandise trade deficit widened markedly at the start of the year, pointing to a downshift in the world’s largest economy.

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In India, the fastest-expanding major economy, economic growth quickened to close out 2024 on a pickup in government spending and strong rural-area consumption.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

US consumers unexpectedly pulled back on spending on goods like cars in January amid extreme winter weather, and a slowdown in services, if sustained, may raise concerns about the resilience of the economy.

The US merchandise trade deficit widened dramatically in January to a record as imports surged ahead of President Donald Trump’s promised tariffs. The shortfall ballooned 25.6% to $153.3 billion. Between the trade and consumer spending data, gross domestic product is seen declining an annualized 1.5% in the current quarter, down from the 2.3% projected pace of growth expected just days ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s latest GDPNow forecast.

The chief executive officer of Walmart Inc. said American consumers are showing signs of stress as food prices remain stubbornly high. Some shoppers are running out of money before the end of the month and turning to smaller pack sizes for consumer goods, Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon told executives at the Economic Club of Chicago.

Europe

Donald Trump has made it clear that Europe needs to defend itself, and the continent’s response to the US threats of withdrawal is starting to take shape. In the region’s biggest security initiative since the Cold War, the European Union is looking to unleash hundreds of billions of euros in additional financing for defense, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Britain will be hit by rising prices and severe bottlenecks as a result of the Labour government’s plans for an historic increase in building projects, analysis shows. As much as £900 billion ($1.1 trillion) will be spent on public and private infrastructure by the end of 2029, according to a Boston Consulting Group report — almost three times the level of the previous five years.